CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the study - - - - - 1
1.2 Statement of the problem - - - - - 3
1.3 Objectives of the study - - - - - 5
1.4 Basic Assumptions - - - - - 6
1.5 Hypothesis formulation - - - - - 7
1.6 Significance of the study - - - - - 8
1.7 Limitations of the study - - - - - 9
1.8 Organization of the study - - - - 10
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CHAPTER TWO: REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE
2.0 Introduction - - - - - - - 11
2.1 Review of the Literature - - - - - 11
CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY
3.0 Introduction - - - - - - - 24
3.1 Population of study - - - - - - 24
3.2 Sources of Data - - - - - - 27
3.3 Problems Encountered during Data collection - 27
3.4 The sampling Technique - - - - - 28
3.5 Concept, operation and Definition of terms - 30
3.6 Research procedures - - - - - 32
3.7 Methods of Data Analysis - - - - - 32
3.8 Distance concept (Mahalanobis D2 Statistic) - 34
3.9 Multiple Regression - - - - - - 38
3.10 Underlying assumptions for regression analysis 40
3.11 Product-moment coefficient of correlation - 41
3.12 Coefficient of Multiple Determination - - 42
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3.13 A test for the Hypothesis of equality of two covariance
matrices - - - - - - - - 43
3.14 Test of the Equality of the two mean vectors - 44
3.15 Stepwise Regression - - - - - 45
3.16 Additional distance due to extra variates - - 46
CHAPTER FOUR: ANALYSIS OF DATA
4.0 Introduction - - - - - - - 48
4.1 Test of the equality of two dispersion (covariance)
matrices -- - - - - - - - 48
4.2 Correlation Analysis - - - - - - 51
4.3 Multiple regression Analysis - - - - 53
4.4 Distance concept (Mahalanobis) analysis for
21 and 22 - - - - - - 62
4.5 Stepwise regression Analysis - - - - 91
4.6 Multiple regression Analysis Model summary - 95
4.7 Distance concept analysis between males and
females - - - - - - - - 98
4.8 Additional Distance due to Extra variates - - 128
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4.9 Test of the equality of two mean vectors for male
and female - - - - - - - 131
4.10 Test of the equality of two mean vectors for
21 and 22 - - - - - - - 139
4.11 Hypothesis Testing - - - - - - 147
CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY OF FINDINGS,
CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
5.1 Summary of findings - - - - - 150
5.2 Conclusions - - - - - - - - 168
5.3 Recommendations - - - - - - 171
References - - - - - - - - 173
Appendix - - - - - - - - 182
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LIST OF TABLES
1.0 The faculties, the departments and the number
of students (graduates) chosen for the study - 26
1.1 Result of correlation coefficients - - - 51
1.2 Result of the additional distance due to extra
variates - - - - - - - - 144
1.3 Result of the intellectual distance between
21 and 22 - - - - - - - - 150
1.4 Result of the intellectual distance between male
and female - - - - - - - 165
1.5 Result of correlation coefficient and coefficient
of multiple determination - - - - - 166
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ABSTRACT
The interest in this work is to study the predictive value of
students’ academic performance using JAMB scores and CGPA in
Nnamdi Azikiwe University Awka. In addition the level at which the
divergence in grades started is also of great importance to the
researcher. Four faculties out of nine faculties were selected, from
which two departments each were selected from the already
selected faculties. This made it a total of eight departments
altogether for the study. The (Mahalanobis) generalized distance
concept used to “measure” the intellectual distance between 21
and 22 students reveals that this distance at graduation is far
greater than that at entry point for all the departments studied.
And that there is a gap between these two groups of students at
graduation as well as at entry point. From the findings, it was
gathered that the divergence in grades started after year one,
that is, it rose in year one in most of the departments studied.
Then in the subsequent years, it either rose or fell. The multiple
regression analysis used shows that the entry point scores as well
as the yearly GPAs can be used to predict the FCGPA. A stepwise
regression analysis reveals that the yearly GPAs are the ‘best’
predictors of the FCGPA. The concept of generalized distance 2
p D
reveals that the intellectual distance between 21 and 22 graduates
both at entry point and at graduation is not the same which
means that the intellectual distance at graduation is far greater
than that at entry point. The concept of additional distance due to
extra variates shows that the inclusion of the extra q variates
increases the efficiency of discrimination between the two groups
(21 and 22). A correlation analysis shows that there is both positive
and negative weak correlation between the entry point scores and
the FCGPA for the two groups. Also the coefficient of multiple
determination reveals that over 90% of the total variations in the
FCGPA is accounted for by the yearly GPAs of the two groups.
From the hypotheses tested, it was observed that:
i. there exists a relationship between the entry point scores,
yearly GPAs and FCGPA for both 21 and 22 students
(graduates):
ii. students (graduates) with 21 differ greatly from those of
22.
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CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Background of the study
Academic programme in Nnamdi Azikiwe University was founded on the philosophy that knowledge should be disseminated and propagated without hindrance. Candidates are admitted into the first degree regular programmes of the University through the Joint Admissions and Matriculation Board (JAMB) examinations, direct entry, pre-science programme, continuing Education Programme (CEP), and inter-university transfer. But the researcher based the study mainly on JAMB as a mode of admission of students in the University. This is
because this examining body (JAMB) was established by the Federal Government of Nigeria through Act 2 of 1978 to regularize the intake of students into the Universities and solve the problem of multiple admissions given to some candidates at the expense of others. Like other examining bodies in Nigeria, JAMB has been subjected to a series of criticisms. The researcher is not interested in these criticisms. But is interested in finding out at what level during the course
of study of students admitted through JAMB (with high or low scores) did divergence in grades begin, when compared with their yearly cumulative grade point averages. Examination in Nigerian schools is dated back to the advent of formal education. As a former British colony, the system of examinations in Nigeria took after the British system. The importance of examinations in the country’s education system has been entrenched in the National policy of education. In the University setting, success in an examination is being assessed through the cumulative grade point average obtained by students in all courses registered from year one to the final year. As such, a student is deemed to have performed very well to the level of second class upper division if the cumulative grade point average is between 3.50 and 4.49, or first class if cumulative grade
point average is 4.50 and above on a 5-point scale. Hence, the cumulative grade point average determines the success level of a student from one semester to another. The grading of the cumulative grade point average is such that 4.50 and
above is first class, 3.50 to 4.49 is second class upper division (21), 2.40 to 3.49 is second class lower division (22), 1.50 to 2.39 is third class, 1.00 to 1.49 is ordinary pass degree while below 1.00 is failure.
1.2 Statement of the Problem
Over the years, students have been admitted into the higher institution of learning in Nigerian Universities mainly through JAMB. The students at the entry point with high or low score in JAMB may graduate with a first class, second
class, pass or some may fail. At a certain level in their course of study, there are divergences of grades / scores. This implies that some students with high or low scores in JAMB, at a certain year in their study made grade point averages which are below or above expectations with regards to their initial high/low score at entry point. One wonders at what point/level did this divergence start. This is the problem of the study. The researcher is interested in only the students that graduated with a second class upper division and a second-class lower division. To
address the stated problem, the following research questions were raised:
1. At what level did the divergence in grades set in?
2. Is there any correlation between students’ grade point at graduation and their entry point scores?
3. What is the between the entry point scores and the yearly grade point averages of students who graduated in some selected departments in some faculties with 21
and 22?
4. Is the ‘distance’ the same in all the selected departments?
5. What is the ‘distance’ between the grade point averages of students with 21 and those with 22?
6. Is the ‘distance’ the same in all the selected departments?
7. What is the ‘distance’ between grade point averages of male graduates and the grade point averages of female graduates in the selected departments?
8. Is the ‘distance’ the same in the selected departments?
1.3 Objectives of the Study
At graduation, students are classified into those with 21 and above, and those with 22 and below. The objectives of this study are;
1. To measure the ‘intellectual distance’ between the two groups
2. To determine when this ‘intellectual distance’ started to appear in their course of studies by working backwards and examining the contributions of their 4th year work, 3rd year work, their 2nd year work, their 1st year work, and their JAMB scores which would represent their “entry behaviour”
3. To see whether the FCGPA can be predicted on the basis
of the variables mentioned in (2) above;
4. To choose a subset of the independent variables which
“best” explains the dependent variable;
5. To measure the ‘intellectual distance ‘ between male
and female graduates;
6. To test the equality of their mean vectors;
7. To test the equality of the two covariance matrices for
21 and 22 students;
1.4 BASIC ASSUMPTIONS
a. The variables are quantitative and continuous;
b. JAMB scores (entry point scores) and the yearly
grade point averages are the independent variables
while the final cumulative grade point average is
the dependent variable.
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c. The students’ previous study environment is
assumed to be the same with the University study
environment.
1.5 HYPOTHESES FORMULATION
For the purpose of this research, the following
hypotheses were formulated to aid in solving the
aforementioned problems and would be tested for rejection or
acceptance at 5% level of significance:
1. H0: there is no relationship between the entry point
scores, the yearly grade point averages and the final
cumulative grade point average of graduates with 21 ,
H1: There exists a relationship between their entry point
scores, the yearly grade point averages and the final
cumulative grade point average of graduates with 21;
2. H0: there is no relationship between the entry point
scores, the yearly grade point averages and the final
cumulative grade point average of graduates with 22 ,
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H1: There exists a relationship between their entry point
scores, the yearly grade point averages and the final
cumulative grade point average of graduates with 22 ;
3. H0: Students (graduates) with 21 do not differ greatly
from those with 22 at graduation ,
H1: Students (graduates) with 21 differ greatly from
those with 22 at graduation.
1.6 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
This study will go a long way to:
i. Provide an insight into students’ academic
performance that help to determine their final
cumulative grade point average ;
ii. Create awareness to students on the dangers of
obtaining a low grade point average at any level in
the course of their study as this determines to a great
extent what their final cumulative grade point
averages will be;
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iii. Help staff, academic advisers and lecturers in counseling and
advising students on the merits and demerits of high or low grade
point averages.
1.7 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
The most difficult problems encountered is the volume
of data required. It involved collecting the results of
graduates who made second-class upper division (21), and
second-class lower division(22) from the examination’s office
in the administrative building of Nnamdi Azikiwe University
Awka. Entry point scores (JAMB) of graduates whose results
have been collected were also collected from the record’s
office of the university. As a result of the difficulties involved
in this collection, the researcher limited the data to only 30
graduates each from every selected department in the
faculties of the university. So because of this number, the
researcher did not include first class candidates (graduates)
as their number is not up to thirty. The multistage sampling
method was used.<
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